Assessment Of Launch Vehicle Failure Probablities
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J. Robinson, B. Parkinson. (2021), JBIS, 74, pp.284-288
Refcode: 2021.74.284
Abstract:
Launch vehicles form an essential component of every space enterprise and can determine the success or failure of the mission (particularly failure) in the first few minutes after ignition. In addition, launchers are expensive and contribute in a number of ways to the cost of the mission, and in the case of expendable launch vehicles (the majority) there is no prior history that that particular collection of hardware will function as required. In a previous paper one of the authors argued that the actual cost of a launch vehicle failure goes well beyond the immediate cost of providing a replacement launch and spacecraft. Now, as many new types of launch vehicle are being proposed or developed, particularly for small payloads, there is an interest in identifying the factors that lead to launcher failures, and particularly the probability of failures occurring in the early days of introducing a new vehicle.
