Do Alien Industrial Civilisations Exist?


D. Pugsley (2018), JBIS71, pp.443-449

Refcode: 2018.71.443
Keywords: SETI, Alien Civilisations, Fermi Paradox, Scientific Reasoning, Industrial Revolution

Discussions about the existence of alien civilisations are over optimistic. They assume life is inevitable, that every intelligent civilisation is capable of developing technology like our own, and often overlook the influence of a civilisation’s culture and social dynamics on technological development. This paper will identify and examine the sequence of events that resulted in our modern Techno-Industrial Society (TIS) and assess the implications for the development of alien industrial civilisations. Each event is so dependent on chance or a special set of circumstances it suggests industrialisation is a freak accident that may happen only once in the lifetime of our Galaxy. The circumstances determining the occurrence of each event will be identified by posing four questions: Is complex life rare? Is technology an inevitable consequence of intelligence? Do all intelligent societies become a TIS? How does resource depletion affect TIS development?