Geopolitics and International Space Exploration Plans For the Near Future 

NICK SPALL 

2026.79.0151

DOI https://doi.org/10.59332/jbis-079-05-0151

This paper explores the assertion that the history of space exploration will repeat itself and that the current divide betweenthe western nations led by NASA and Russia/China initiatives will eventually change allowing for a more “international”approach. This might enable an affordable joint exploration of the Moon and Mars. The paper notes how the 1960s saw apowerful space confrontation between the two opposing superpower ideologies of the USA/western nations and the Soviet Union, with the USA “winning” by achieving the first lunar landing when NASA’s Neil Armstrong walked on the Moon in July 1969.The subsequent thawing of the “Cold War” between the Soviet block and the Western powers following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 eventually allowed for easier international exploration of space. The construction of the International Space Station (ISS) from 1998 represented the pinnacle of the world’s space cooperation. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 completely changed matters and a new “Cold War” has ensued. Russia is not taking part in the international Artemis project involving the human return to the Moon from 2026 – this is now effectively a western democracy-led initiative. Russia and China are considering their own “International Lunar Research Station” (ILRS) project as a rival approach to Artemis. Russia has substantially reduced its space exploration budget in recent years, but China has expanded its spaceactivity and hopes to achieve its own lunar landing from 2030 onwards. For the future, it is arguable that the full explorationof Mars and the wider Solar System beyond awaits the return of a more settled geopolitical situation with international east west cooperation in space becoming established again – a suggested timeline of how this might occur is provided.

Keywords: Geopolitics, Arthur C. Clarke, Soviet Union, Space Race, Sputnik 1, Vostok 1, Yuri Gagarin, Cold War, Apollo, ISS, ASTP, Artemis project, ILRS, Shenzhou, ISRO, Gaganyaan, ESA spacecraft, President Trump administration, Mars exploration