Operational Sustainability of Geosynchronous Equatorial Orbit: Analyzing the Impact of Localized Fragmentation Events on Space Operations in GEO

JAKUB LÉS, MANFRED GAWLAS

2026.79.0297

DOI https://doi.org/10.59332/jbis-079-08-0297

By 2025, the number of artificial space objects within a 200-kilometer altitude band surrounding geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO) and within a latitudinal range of ±15 degrees from the equator exceeded 4,000. While the growth rate of objects in GEO is low compared to that observed in low Earth orbit (LEO), their number is nonetheless increasing. Despite a lower collision probability compared to LEO, the risk of satellite-debris collisions in GEO remains a concern – particularly in light of high-energy fragmentation events such as the Intelsat 33e incident, resulting in generation of over 700 debris fragments. Given the relatively stable environment of GEO, necessity for satellites to maintain precise positions, high cost of placement, and limited capabilities for collision avoidance maneuvers, localized fragmentation events could pose significant operational risks. With a definitive lack of atmospheric drag, natural cleansing mechanisms present at GEO possess limited influence. As a result, debris in GEO can persist longer than in LEO and due to the greater distance, their detection from Earth remains even more challenging. In 2025, public agencies and leading companies in the field (e.g. ExoAnalytic Solutions) are unable to observe fragments smaller than 0.1 m. This paper presents the results of Monte Carlo simulations examining the short- term effects of satellite collisions and explosion-based fragmentation events within GEO. In the course of the simulations, performed on purpose-built and publicly available models, a range of fragmentation scenarios and randomized velocity distributions were employed, allowing for a statistically meaningful exploration of the outcomes. The analysis quantified the hazard of post-fragmentation debris-satellite impacts based on proximity thresholds. The study assesses the threat posed by localized fragmentation events in GEO in the 14 days following fragmentation. Results of the study outline a critical paradox: while trackable debris larger than 0.1 m presents manageable close-approach risks of 0.004% of simulations recording encounters within 10 m, 0.01 m debris raises this to 0.19% at the same threshold – representing significant increases in collision risk for debris that remains completely invisible to current surveillance systems. Results demonstrate that collision threat levels increase substantially as debris size decreases below current detection capabilities, with the smallest debris presenting the highest operational risks through significantly larger fragment populations while operating below surveillance thresholds. The study concludes that current space traffic management approaches systematically underestimate collision risks by focusing on detectable but statistically less significant threats while ignoring the dominant undetectable debris populations that represent the primary operational hazard in post-fragmentation GEO environments.

Keywords: Geosynchronous Equatorial Orbit (GEO), Space Debris, Fragmentation Events, Fragmentation Modeling, Collision Avoidance