The Drake Equation At 60: Reconsidered And Abandoned

J. Gertz. (2021), JBIS, 74, pp.258-268

Refcode: 2021.74.258

Abstract:

Each of the individual factors of the Drake Equation is considered. Each in turn is either abandoned or redefined and finally reduced to a single new factor, fd, the fraction of technological life that is detectable by any means. However, neither the Drake Equation, nor its replacement, can actually solve for N. Only a vibrant SETI program and, ultimately, contact with an alien civilization might result in the determination of N.